The Odds of Winning a Lottery

A competition based on chance in which numbered tickets are sold and prizes are given to the holders of numbers drawn at random. Prizes may be cash or merchandise, such as automobiles or vacations. A lottery is often run by a state government and may raise money for public works projects or charitable causes. The practice of distributing property or services by lot is as old as history. In the Bible, God instructed Moses to take a census of Israel and distribute land by lot. Roman emperors used lotteries to give away slaves and other valuables during Saturnalian feasts and other entertainment events.

The odds of winning a lottery are extremely long—1 in 55,492, according to the latest official results for the Mega Millions jackpot—but many people don’t care about the odds and continue to play. Lotteries are fun to fantasize about and a way for people to spend a few bucks, but critics say they are regressive because the poor spend a disproportionate share of their incomes on lottery tickets.

People tend to believe that buying more tickets or playing more frequently increases their chances of winning. But the rules of probability tell a different story: You cannot increase your odds by purchasing more tickets; you can only improve them by improving your skill as a player, which is not easy. The graph below shows a plot of the results for the recent drawing, with each row and column representing an application, and the color in each cell indicating the position that application was awarded (from first on the left to one hundredth on the right). Note that the colors do not appear to be uniformly distributed: they reflect the fact that, on average, each application is awarded its rank a similar number of times.